One of our Lib Dem colleagues in Chelmsford, Stephen Robinson, attended a public meeting last Thursday to debate austerity and the deficit.
On one of the talking points was when Stephen said that the number of doctors has increased since the Coalition Government was formed.This was hotly disputed at the meeting but it’s confirmed by the independent organisation fullfact.org.
They said in March:
Mr Cameron claimed that, since the 2010 General Election, the number of doctors had risen by 4,000 and the number of bureaucrats had declined by 5,000, apparently demonstrating that he was keeping his promise that the ranks of doctors would grow faster than bureaucrats.
Full Fact decided to check the figures behind the claim.
AnalysisData on NHS staff numbers can be obtained via the NHS Information Centre which publishes experimental statistics on the NHS workforce numbers. The national dataset allows for analysis of the estimated numbers for each month since September 2009.
The statistics show staff numbers for ‘headcount’, ‘full-time equivalent’ (FTE) and ‘role count’ staff. The FTE measure is the most commonly used indicator, although all three tell a similar story in this case.
Taking the full-time equivalent statistics, the total number of NHS hospital and communuty doctors, as of November 2011, is 101,668. For May 2010 – at the time of the previous election, this figure was estimated at 97,729. Based on these figures, there are just over 3,900 more doctors in the NHS since the election.
Mind you – that increase was up to last November. Have things deteriorated since then? Well, looking at the latest figures (for February) things are almost the same – a very small reduction of 30 doctors , from 101,668 to 101,638.
There will be a ‘hangover’ impact at some point. The current payroll will have been budgeted in advance, so reductions in budgets (or wasteful top down reorgansations) may see the current payroll budget unchanged but with the knowledge that future budgets will have to decrease. When staff retire they will not necessarily replaced or roles will be joined up and only one person will be employed for the same role. Try and redo this post in 3 years time then the evidence will be undeniable either way.
Also I dare you to do the same for police, youth services and third sector employment.